For a double dissolution poll Malcolm Turnbull ostensibly called to clear stalled construction commission legislation, the 2 July election has produced far greater ramifications for the Coalition and Labor.
Western Sydney lived up to its mantle as a key battleground; with three seats looking to have changed hands and some of the nation’s most pronounced swings in voter sentiment.
The redistribution of electoral boundaries in February this year meant that retaining the outer south-western Sydney seat of Macarthur was never going to be easy for the Liberal’s, Russell Matheson, who had held it since 2010.
With his margin reduced from over 11 per cent to an estimated 3.3 per cent, Matheson faced a tight contest from Labor candidate, Mike Freelander. Few commentators, however, anticipated the scale of electorate’s push for change.
Someone, as the song says, left the cake out in the rain.
Having secured over 53 per cent of the primary vote, Dr Freelander looks to have registered a 12.6 per cent swing to Labor on a two-party preferred basis, well in excess of the average national swing of 1.9 per cent and by far Western Sydney’s biggest lurch to Labor.
Macarthur is different for other reasons. Throughout much of the country we saw a drift of votes away from the major parties towards minors and independents. In Macarthur the opposite was true, with over 27 per cent of voters who had chosen ‘others’ in 2013, returning to the major parties.
Moving up the Northern Road and left to the electorate of Lindsay and the mood for change, while less palpable, was enough to see high profile first-time member, the Liberal’s, Fiona Scott defeated by Labor debutant, Emma Husar.
Centred on Penrith and surrounds, Lindsay is always a tough contest. It has been a bellwether since its creation in 1984, meaning it has always gone with the party that formed government.
Campaigning on the back of an $88 million funding commitment to Nepean Hospital, Husar – who first came to prominence challenging state member, Stuart Ayres in 2015 – looks to have generated enough momentum to defeat Scott with a swing of 4.6 per cent to Labor.
Labor focused heavily on local issues in Lindsay. Their messages on Medicare and the Gonski schools funding program evidently resonated with voters. The Liberals, in contrast, persisted with a nationally themed agenda of jobs and growth.
The merits of both approaches will undoubtedly be scrutinised by strategists from both parties in the months ahead. It is worth noting also that nearly 20 per cent of Lindsay voters chose minor parties over the big two, up from roughly 14 per cent in 2013.
Heading west up the hill towards the Blue Mountains and north out across Windsor and Richmond, the seat of Macquarie ushered in a change of its own. On her third attempt former journalist, Susan Templeman won this diverse electorate from longstanding Liberal member, Louise Markus.
Having represented the Western Sydney seat of Greenway since 2004, Markus switched to Macquarie in 2010 following redistribution. She very effectively stablisied the Liberal vote for two-terms in an electorate predominately left-leaning in its western edges and conservative in its north-eastern fringe.
Markus was not helped by proposed Badgerys flight-path backlash in the lower-mountains. Her chances arguably took another dent in the wake of an ABC television interview where critics felt she stumbled in articulating her achievements for the electorate.
Supported by Springwood based, Labor senator, Doug Cameron, Templeman built on her growing profile in the electorate over the last term, particularly in the wake of the 2013 bushfires, where she lost her family home.
With a state Labor member and a Labor dominated local council, the Blue Mountains represent a consolidation of sorts for the party in the outer west.
By volume, Western Sydney has recorded the nation’s largest swing to Labor, eclipsing even the maverick shifts in Tasmania and the Northern Territory. Not only did we see three seats change hands, a significant proportion of the region’s voters came back to Labor in its heartland seats.
In Jason Clare’s electorate of Blaxland, the shadow minister for communications and for resources secured a 9.4 per cent two-party preferred swing, taking his margin to an unassailable 20.6 per cent. Clare’s colleagues, Ed Husic in Chifley and Chris Bowen in McMahon attracted swings of 9.1 and 8.3 per cent respectively.
In Parramatta, a seat unable to shake its marginal status in recent elections, has now moved out of the danger zone for Labor, with Julie Owens’ securing a swing of 6 per cent at the expense of Liberal challenger, Michael Beckwith.
Liverpool mayor, Ned Mannoun’s tilt at Werriwa failed to dislodge Labor from the electorate, with Anne Stanley replacing the retired, Laurie Ferguson as member of the seat once held by former prime minister, Gough Whitlam and former leader, Mark Latham. Mannoun did, however, limit the extent of the swing in a seat Labor has won at every election since 1936, and many prior.
Labor’s Michelle Rowland made inroads in Greenway since retaining the seat against the odds in 2013. In her defeat of television presenter, Yvonne Keane, the shadow minister for citizenship and multiculturalism has secured a 6 per cent buffer for Labor in a seat that was once one of the region’s most marginal.
In Hughes, the Liberal’s, Craig Kelly held Labor candidate, Diedreee Steinwall to a 2.9 per cent swing. Kelly overcame the distraction of a pre-selection stoush retain a nearly 10 per cent margin on a seat that is gradually moving away from the west on redistribution.
Two bright sparks for the Liberals were David Coleman in Banks and Craig Laundy in Reid. Both first-time members, they retained and, in Laundy’s case built margins in seats that were former Labor strongholds.
Former television executive, Coleman held off a challenge from Labor’s Chris Gambian, assisted in part by a redistribution that pushed the pre-election margin out from 1.8 per cent to an estimated 2.8 per cent.
In Reid, Craig Laundy achieved the impossible. Not only has he retained the marginal electorate, he bucked the national and regional trend and secured a 1.3 per cent swing to the Liberals.
Self-described non-conformist, Laundy has built a solid relationship with his constituency. Opposing his party’s proposed reforms to the Racial Discrimination Act and proving to be exceptionally responsive to local issues, Laundy has forged a relationship with his constituents that will be a challenge for Labor to break in future polls.
While the all important national outcome of the election remains unclear, we can be certain that the West was won on 2 July by those in both parties, who adopted a local-focus ahead of a national agenda.
The 2016 election broke some electoral truisms while restoring others. In the midst of one of the largest infrastructure spends in Australian history, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and a coming wave of internationalism, innovation and disruption, it seems that Western Sydney is most interested in its own backyard.
Dr Andy Marks is Assistant Vice-Chancellor, Strategy and Projects, at Western Sydney University.
